August 28, 2025

Why HVAC Manufacturers Are Raising Prices Amid Supply Shortages

HVAC manufacturers across Massachusetts are implementing significant price increases due to supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, and material shortages affecting homeowners.

Your HVAC system worked fine last year, but now you’re hearing about price increases everywhere. Several HVAC manufacturers have officially declared upcoming price hikes for 2024, and you’re wondering what this means for your home comfort budget. The reality is that the cost of HVAC equipment has increased significantly, driven by factors that include rising raw material prices, supply chain disruptions, higher consumer demand, and labor shortages. Let’s break down what’s really happening in the HVAC market and how it affects Massachusetts homeowners like you.

What's Driving HVAC Manufacturer Price Increases in 2024

The HVAC industry isn’t immune to the economic pressures affecting every sector. The general inflation that hit the nation is mild compared to the escalation in HVAC replacement pricing, which started with manufacturer price jumps during the supply chain disruptions of COVID.

At the end of 2023, several leading HVAC equipment manufacturers publicly announced upcoming price increases for residential equipment in 2024, including manufacturing companies like Trane, Lennox, Carrier, Daikin, Allied Air and more. These aren’t small adjustments either. These increases ranged from 5%-10% across the board, signaling an industry-wide trend.

The timing isn’t coincidental. Multiple factors are converging to create what industry experts call a perfect storm of cost pressures.

Supply Chain Disruptions Continue to Impact Equipment Costs

The HVAC supply chain began struggling because of the COVID-19 pandemic, just like many other industries. This impact is still being felt. While recovery is on the horizon, it’s been especially slow for the HVAC industry.

The problems run deeper than just delayed deliveries. Labor shortages have been the main cause for the disruption, as many workers have been getting sick or taking leave to care for sick family members. As a result, the manufacturing plants that make HVAC supplies and parts have seen a decline in production.

Another factor contributing to supply chain issues is a materials shortage. Semiconductor chips, copper, aluminum, steel, and even plastic have been in short supply and all of these materials are needed to make HVAC equipment. They’re also needed in other industries, and the manufacturers who are willing to pay the highest prices get these scarce raw materials.

The ripple effect reaches your doorstep in multiple ways. In addition to shortages, there have been shipping problems on sea and land, which delays the time it takes for equipment to get from the manufacturer to HVAC companies. Lead times for getting equipment are months out. When contractors can’t get parts quickly, emergency repairs become more expensive, and replacement timelines stretch longer than anyone wants.

New Refrigerant Regulations Add Another Layer of Costs

Regulatory changes are also a factor, as stricter environmental rules have necessitated the adoption of new low-GWP refrigerants and energy-efficient technologies, which are often more expensive to produce. The introduction of mildly flammable (A2L) equipment is a prime example of the new regulations.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will implement several new HVAC regulations that take effect on Jan. 1, 2025, including restricting the use of certain refrigerants. Specifically, the mandate will phase out the R-410A refrigerant in residential HVAC systems, replacing it with either R-454B or R-32, depending on the manufacturer.

This transition isn’t just about environmental compliance—it’s hitting homeowners’ wallets directly. During their first-quarter earnings calls, several manufacturers confirmed that A2L equipment will not only be more expensive than R-410A units, but that they are also likely to increase the price of any unsold R-410A systems in 2025.

The phasedown will, indeed, be an important issue this year, as January 2024 marks the most substantial reduction in the HFC phase-down mandate thus far. The initial phase of the policy, which required a 10% cut in HFC refrigerant production in 2022, had a negligible impact on refrigerant availability, but the additional 30% cut in production in 2024 is poised to create a significant impact on the availability — and cost — of many HVAC refrigerants, including R-410A.

The message is clear: if you’re considering HVAC replacement, the window for older, less expensive technology is closing fast.

How Rising Costs Impact Massachusetts Homeowners

Here in Massachusetts, we’re seeing these price increases more acutely than many other regions. The cost of HVAC services has increased by up to 80% compared to just a couple of years ago, and that’s because supply is short and demand is high. While the shortage continues, you can expect prices to remain high. That means HVAC repair companies will need to pass the additional cost onto you, the customer, at least to some degree.

The numbers are staggering when you look at specific components. Take basic parts that used to be routine replacements. Last year, the cost of a capacitor was $11.75. This year, the price hit a high of $51.82. In 2017, a contactor cost about $7.10. We saw the price double to $14.77 at one point in 2021.

These aren’t luxury upgrades—these are basic components that keep your system running. When a simple repair part costs four times more than it did just a few years ago, you start questioning whether repair makes sense versus replacement.

The Real Cost of Waiting for Prices to Drop

Many Massachusetts homeowners are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping prices will eventually come down. The data suggests this might be a costly mistake. You may be considering sticking it out with your aging heating or cooling system as you wait for HVAC prices to come back down before installing a new system in your home. We’re on the front lines of these rising prices every day, and we highly recommend to all of our customers not to wait to install their next HVAC system.

The reasoning becomes clear when you consider the broader economic picture. 2024 will be even more challenging. Equipment prices will jump again with new refrigerants. Even with the better financing vehicles available today, many consumers will hesitate and opt for repairs over replacements.

In 2024, we are actually seeing a trend toward replacement more than repair. This may be driven by the impending change in refrigerant and anticipation of more increases in the near future. Smart homeowners are recognizing that delaying replacement often means paying significantly more later.

Consider your heating costs alone. Household heating costs this winter are projected to be higher than last winter for all heating fuel sources, except heating oil, due to a combination of higher retail prices and expected consumption. Compared to last year, the cost of heating for residential customers is expected to be 24% higher for homes heating with natural gas, 6% higher for electricity, 1% higher for propane.

When you’re already paying more to heat your home, an inefficient system becomes a double penalty. You’re spending more on fuel to run equipment that’s working harder to deliver the same comfort level.

Making Smart Decisions in a Rising Price Environment

The key to navigating this challenging market isn’t panic—it’s informed decision-making. Start by honestly assessing your current system’s condition and efficiency. You’ll typically want to replace a system if it’s nearing the end of its lifespan (around 10 to 20 years) because ongoing repairs will add up. You should also consider replacing your system if the required repairs amount to more than 50% of the cost of a new AC unit.

Consider Early Replacement: If your system is nearing the end of its lifespan or uses high-GWP refrigerants, consider upgrading to a new, more efficient system that complies with the upcoming mandate. This approach lets you avoid the rush when regulations fully take effect and potentially secure better pricing before the next wave of increases.

Don’t overlook available incentives. In Massachusetts, you can receive up to $10,000 in rebates, which, depending on other factors, could completely cover the cost of installing the heat pump. The Inflation Reduction Act’s rebates and tax credits can help offset HVAC replacement costs when you upgrade to an energy-efficient system.

The math often works in your favor when you factor in energy savings. For most homeowners in MA, a 16 SEER Central HVAC unit will be the best balance of price and energy efficiency, and yield an average ROI of 4.8 years, when upgrading from an old 9 SEER HVAC system. Thus, upgrading from 9 SEER to 16 SEER system, it will pay for itself in 4.8 years.

Regular maintenance becomes even more critical in this environment. Regular maintenance is your first line of defense against being impacted by supply chain disruptions. If you can avoid preventable issues, you’ll be in the clear. Although some breakdowns can’t be avoided, HVAC preventative maintenance will go a long way to keep your system functioning.

Planning Your Next Steps in Today's HVAC Market

The HVAC industry’s price increases aren’t temporary fluctuations—they represent a fundamental shift in how equipment is manufactured, regulated, and distributed. The HVAC industry is gearing up for some challenges in 2024 that could put a damper on the incredible growth it’s experienced over the last few years. Inflation and higher interest rates continue to be an issue, and rising equipment and installation costs could lead consumers to start repairing rather than replacing their existing systems.

Understanding these market forces helps you make decisions based on facts rather than wishful thinking. Whether you’re dealing with an aging system that needs frequent repairs or planning ahead for eventual replacement, the key is working with contractors who understand both the technical requirements and the economic realities you’re facing.

The most successful homeowners in this environment are those who plan ahead, take advantage of available incentives, and work with experienced local contractors who can provide honest assessments of repair versus replacement economics. When you’re ready to explore your options, we bring over 30 years of Massachusetts HVAC experience to help you navigate these challenging market conditions while keeping your home comfortable and your costs manageable.

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